A new beginning for the Central African Republic? Răspunde

From the Agencies: AP's Ben Curtis in Central African Republic

After 54 years of independence, 5 coups d’etat, and one of the longest and most profound conflicts in the region, the Central African Republic seems to be facing for the first time an opportunity for improvement in political terms. However, enthusiasm should be kept within moderate boundaries, as the CAR carries the burden of a history of violent political confrontations, which have not yet been put an end to.

In order to better understand the reasons behind such skepticism, let us go back to a moment which marked the beginning of a period of the bloodiest civil conflicts in the CAR, namely the early 2000’s. In 2003, general François Bozizé overthrew president Ange-Félix Patassé in a coup, after a failed attempt in 2001. Later in 2005, Bozizé won the elections in the second ballot. In spite of this, he failed to acknowledge the mistakes of his predecessors and continued the tradition of governing in self- interest, in detriment of the consolidation of his own political support. More importantly, the disregard for the regions of the CAR controlled by his political enemies only enlarged the gap between Bozizé and those who opposed him, thus giving birth to rebellious movements. Two main strands of rebellion were created, one based in the northeast, close to the border with Sudan and Chad, and one based in the northwest in areas close to Chad and Cameroon. The former consists of an alliance led by Michel Djotodia, who would become a key political figure in the crisis of 2012-2013. The tensions escalated to a point where, between 2004 and 2007, the CAR experienced a conflict of unprecedented proportions, involving extrajudicial killings in the north, torture, beatings, and rape of subjects and prisoners. Both the Central African Armed Forces( particularly the presidential guard) and the rebellion were responsible for crimes against humanity. More…

The Intricateness of a Regime: Difficulties and Prospects of the Future of Côte d’Ivoire as a Distinctive Political Design 1

ICOAST-POLITICS-ELECTION-GBAGBO

Is transition always progress? Is liberal democracy the ultimate and natural destination for everyone? When it comes to predictions, there are regions of the world that are particularly attractive, due to their complex situations.

Like in many cases of sub-Saharan Africa, the evolution of Cote D’Ivoire in political terms raises many questions regarding especially the direction of this evolution.

The announcement in 2013 of Henri Konan Bédié and Alassane Ouattara that they will be running for president in the 2015 elections leads to a problematic situation. In a first row, both Bédié and Ouattara, having passed the age limit imposed by the Constitution (Art. 35), from a technical point of view, no longer qualify for such a position. In this respect, the decision of the two to run for office clearly undermines the Constitution. However, before looking into such technical features, it is necessary to try and outline the nature of the Ivorian regime in a broader sense. And the answer is never a clear-cut one. More…

Ce va fi în 2013: agenda politică internațională 3

circumnavigation

Andrei a inaugurat pe acest portal ideea de predicții politice fundamentate pe experiența anterioară și bine argumentate. Dacă el s-a axat numai pe politica internă, eu îmi voi încerca abilitățile predictive în cazul politicii internaționale. În raport cu politica internă unde sunt mai puține variabile care pot afecta predicțiile (dar și în acest caz probabilitatea de a estima eronat este destul de mare), în cazul politicii internaționale aceste variabile se multiplică în proporție geometrică, iar acuratețea estimărilor are de suferit.

Cum anul 2012 s-a încheiat de mai bine de două săptămâni și 2013 este de-abia la început este bine să vedem ce ar putea să se întâmple în viitorul apropiat. Nu am inclus în predicțiile mele America Latină și Africa din două motive: nu cunosca foarte bine situația politică și evoluțiile politice din aceste regiuni au un interes secundar pentru mine. More…

Pariul chinez? 6

Sătui de condiţiile impuse de Fondul Monetar Internaţional României, pe care îl şi acuză de agravarea crizei economice, o serie de personalităţi ale vieţii publice şi politice au sugerat în această perioadă contractarea unui împrumut interguvernamental pentru a facilita relansarea economică. În cele ce urmează voi argumenta că beneficiile unui asemenea împrumut ar fi minime şi ar implica mai târziu costuri politice. Voi susţine de asemenea că România trebuie să-şi formuleze o strategie externă pe termen lung în raport cu Republica Populară Chineză, care să ia în considerare statutul de putere în ascensiune al acestui stat.

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Melinda Gates @ Ted.com: Ce pot învăţa ONG-urile de la Coca Cola? 2

Coca-Cola, spune Melinda Gates, a pătruns în pieţe în care nici o altă organizaţie nu a ajuns înaintea lor. Cele 3 ingrediente ale succesului (monitorizare continuă a datelor de pe teren, folosirea antreprenorilor local pentru a ajunge în zonele cele mai îndepărtate şi poziţionarea băuturii în funcţie de cultura locală) ar putea/ trebui să fie folosite de către organizaţiile umanitare în implementarea propriilor programe.

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The blue-print of the future NATO Strategic Concept: Some comments and views 2

NATO has released last week a report containing the outline of the future NATO Strategic Concept that will be adopted at the Alliance summit this year in Lisbon. Although this is not even a draft of the new Strategic Concept, it is a blue print that offers a glimpse of NATO’s strategic thinking. Following its publication  consultations and heated negotiations between member states will follow in order to draft the NATO’s new Strategic Concept. This article is first in a series dedicated to analyzing the outline of the Alliance’s future strategy. In this part I will summarize and analyze the chapters dedicated to the threat environment, core tasks of NATO and partnerships.

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